Opening an online store without prior market research is like sailing without a map – you may reach your destination, but the likelihood of getting lost is much greater.
A market analysis for an online store allows you to verify whether your business idea has a realistic chance of success before you invest your life savings in it.
The Polish e-commerce market has reached maturity. According to the Gemius report " E-commerce in Poland 2025, " 78% of surveyed internet users say they shop online.
The battle is no longer about attracting new customers online, but rather about capturing the attention of those who have been shopping online for years and have established habits. In such a competitive environment, market research before opening a store is essential.
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What is market analysis in e-commerce?
Market analysis for an online store is a systematic process of collecting and interpreting information about the industry you intend to operate in. It includes examining the market size, identifying your target audience, identifying competitors, and understanding trends affecting trade in a given product category.
It's worth distinguishing between two methodological approaches. Quantitative analysis operates on numbers—sales volumes, market shares, and demographic data. It answers the questions "how much?" and "how often?". Qualitative analysis, on the other hand, examines the reasons and motivations—why customers choose certain products and the emotions that accompany their purchasing decisions.
Both methods complement each other: quantitative data show the scale of phenomena, while qualitative data help to understand them.
A well-conducted analysis should answer the following questions:
- how big the market is and what its dynamics are,
- who are the potential customers,
- who is the competition,
- what entry barriers you will encounter,
- whether there is a niche to develop.
Analysis of market size and potential
How to analyze the e-commerce market in terms of its size? Analyzing sales potential requires a three-pronged approach. TAM (Total Addressable Market) is the total market value—all potential buyers in a given category.
SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market) is the portion of the market you can realistically serve based on your offering profile. SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market) is the portion you can actually capture given your resources and competition.
Reliable market data can be found in industry reports published by the Chamber of Digital Economy, Gemius, and IAB Polska. The Central Statistical Office provides data on retail trade, including the share of online sales.
When assessing potential, pay attention to growth dynamics. A growing market provides more room for new players – you can grow with the market without taking market share from competitors.
The seasonality of sales in your category is also important, as it influences inventory planning and marketing activities.
Customer segmentation and persona creation
One of the biggest mistakes new entrepreneurs make is believing their product is for everyone. Customer segmentation in e-commerce allows you to divide the market into smaller, homogeneous groups and focus resources on the most promising ones.
- Demographic segmentation uses characteristics such as age, gender, education and income.
- Psychographic segmentation goes deeper – it examines the lifestyle, values and attitudes of consumers.
- Behavioral segmentation analyzes purchasing behavior: frequency of purchases, brand loyalty, reactions to promotions.
Once you've identified your segments, it's worth creating a persona for each—a detailed profile of a representative customer. Creating a customer persona differs from describing your target audience in the level of detail it provides.
A persona is a specific "person" with a name, goals, concerns, and purchasing motivations. It becomes a reference point for business decisions – from selecting products to crafting advertising messages.
Researching consumer needs and behavior requires drawing on a variety of sources. Google Analytics 4 allows you to analyze visitor characteristics. Keyword analysis tools reveal what people are searching for online. Forums and social media groups reveal potential customers' problems and frustrations.
E-commerce competition analysis
No business operates in a vacuum. Analyzing the e-commerce competition allows you to understand who you'll be competing with for customer attention and wallets.
Start by distinguishing between two types of competition. Direct competitors offer the same products to the same customer group. Indirect competitors meet the same need in a different way.
For a specialty coffee shop, indirect competition might be a coffee chain or a tea producer – all of these companies compete for customers looking for a drink to start their day. Ignoring indirect competition is a common mistake that distorts the market picture.
Research the following areas among your competitors:
- product offer – what products they sell, how wide the range is, what makes them stand out,
- pricing policy – how they shape prices, what promotions and discounts they use, and whether they offer loyalty programs,
- webpage - what does it look like? online shop, how to easily find and buy a product, how the ordering process works,
- marketing strategies – what channels they use, what content they publish, what tone of communication they adopt,
- customer service – what forms of contact they offer, how quickly they respond, what is their returns policy,
- logistics – what delivery methods and costs they offer, and how quickly they process orders.
Tools like SimilarWeb allow you to estimate traffic on competitor websites. Ahrefs and SEMrush show which keywords they're ranking for. Senuto is perfect for analyzing visibility on Google Poland.
The analysis of opinions about the competition is particularly valuable.
Google reviews, price comparison site opinions, and Allegro comments reveal competitors' strengths and weaknesses from a customer perspective. If buyers regularly complain about long delivery times with a competitor, you know what to do better.
Organize the information you've gathered into a SWOT analysis for your main competitors, and then for your own planned business. This comparison will help you identify areas where you can stand out.
Competing with marketplaces
When analyzing the e-commerce market, it's impossible to ignore the dominant role of marketplaces. Platforms like Allegro, Amazon, and Temu have transformed the online retail landscape and pose a challenge for every independent store.
For an owner planning to open a store, a marketplace represents both a competitor and a potential sales channel. Many companies employ a hybrid strategy—operating their own online store while simultaneously offering products on platforms.
Your own store builds your brand and customer relationships, while a marketplace provides access to a huge user base.
How to stand out from the giants?
Small and medium-sized stores can compete in areas where large platforms are structurally weaker: specialized advice, unique product ranges, local availability and fast delivery within a specific area, personalized service, and brand values. Customers are increasingly looking for more than just the lowest price—they want to buy from companies with a mission they identify with.
Purchase path and idea validation
The customer journey is a sequence of stages from awareness of a need to completion of a purchase. In the awareness stage, the customer seeks general information.
In the consideration stage, they compare options and read reviews. In the decision stage, they choose a vendor based on price, delivery, and trust. By mapping this path for your personas, you'll identify moments where you can influence a decision.
Before investing significant funds, validate your idea. Keyword research tools like Google Keyword Planner, Senuto, or Ahrefs will show you what people are searching for online.
High search volumes are a positive sign. Google Trends will show how search popularity changes over time and help identify seasonality.
You can also test demand on a smaller scale: selling on Allegro will check whether products are finding buyers, and an ad redirecting to a simple landing page will show interest in the offer.
Research methods and price monitoring
In-depth interviews with potential customers provide the deepest insight into their needs and concerns.
Online surveys allow you to collect data from a larger number of respondents – tools like Google Forms and Typeform allow you to create forms for free. Mystery shopping – taking on the role of a customer at your competitors – provides practical knowledge about their purchasing process.
Monitoring competitor prices is fundamental to establishing your own pricing strategy. Collect data not only on base prices but also on promotions, discount codes, and free shipping thresholds.
Based on this, choose a strategy: penetration (lower prices to quickly conquer the market), premium (higher segment justified by quality) or parity (similar prices, competing with other elements of the offer).
Trends and regulations
When analyzing the market, consider trends influencing e-commerce. The smartphone has become the primary shopping tool – a store not adapted to mobile devices loses customers.
Social commerce is developing in Poland, though more slowly than in other countries. Re-commerce – the trade in used products – is growing, fueled by environmental awareness.
According to the report " Omni-commerce. I shop conveniently in 2025 ," 39% of internet users already say they shop in foreign stores, which opens up opportunities for cross-border expansion.
You also need to consider the legal environment. The Omnibus Directive requires disclosure of the lowest price 30 days before the discount. The GPSR Regulation imposes obligations related to product safety. The GDPR regulates the processing of customer data. Before launching, consult a lawyer specializing in e-commerce.
Market analysis – the foundation of an informed decision
A thorough market analysis before opening an online store doesn't guarantee success – too many variables influence business success. However, it significantly increases your chances by allowing you to make decisions based on facts rather than hunches.
Understanding the market size, understanding customer needs, and mapping the competition are the foundations on which you'll build your entry strategy. In a world where most new online stores fail within their first few years of operation, thorough preparation is an advantage that shouldn't be underestimated.
Frequently asked questions about e-commerce market analysis
It's a systematic process of gathering and interpreting information about the industry you want to start selling in. It includes market size research, target group identification, verification of competitor activities, and analysis of trends affecting a given product category.
There are two main approaches. Quantitative analysis relies on numbers—examining sales volumes, market shares, and demographic data (answering the questions "how much?" and "how often?"). Qualitative analysis, on the other hand, focuses on understanding the reasons and motivations that drive customers' purchasing decisions.
The Polish e-commerce market is already mature, with 78% of internet users reporting online shopping. Currently, the competition isn't for those just starting to shop online, but for the attention of experienced consumers with established habits. Without proper market research, investing in a store is like "sailing without a map."
Analyzing the market environment should include both direct competitors with their own online stores and the challenges of competing with large marketplaces. A key question to answer is: why should a customer buy a given product from you and not from a popular platform?
In line with best analytical practices, it's worth modeling the customer journey, determining seasonality and industry growth rates, and implementing automated data acquisition and price tracking techniques. Adapting to changing market trends and ensuring e-commerce compliance with the latest legal regulations are equally important.
Summary
The above article covers the following topics:
- Analyzing the mature e-commerce market is essential to realistically assess the chances of success of an online store before investing and to avoid risky blind guessing.
- E-commerce market analysis is the process of examining the industry, competition, and customer needs, combining quantitative and qualitative data to assess business potential and find a market niche.
- The assessment of e-commerce potential involves the analysis of TAM, SAM and SOM indicators and growth dynamics using official industry reports and statistical data.
- Customer segmentation and the creation of detailed personas allow you to precisely tailor your offer and marketing communications to the specific needs, behaviors, and problems of selected target groups.
- Competitive analysis in e-commerce involves examining direct and indirect rivals and their strategies, which allows you to identify market gaps and build your own advantage using analytical tools and customer feedback.
- Independent online stores can effectively compete with dominant marketplaces by combining a hybrid strategy with building a unique brand based on specialized advice and values that mass platforms lack.
- Understanding the customer journey and validating demand using analytical tools and test sales allows you to minimize investment risk before fully launching your online store.
- Combining qualitative methods, such as interviews and mystery shopping, with monitoring competitor pricing strategies allows you to precisely adjust your own market positioning model.
- Successful entry into the e-commerce market requires taking into account modern consumer trends, such as m-commerce and re-commerce, while strictly adhering to legal regulations regarding data protection and price transparency.
- A thorough market analysis, although not a guarantee of success, is an essential data-based foundation that significantly increases an online store's chances of survival in a highly competitive environment.
